Following the ADP data on Wednesday, which came in well above expectations, there is a risk that the market has raised its expectations for today’s labor market report – and will end up being disappointed. That means USD might ease in an initial reaction.

As long as the data is not disastrously bad today, USD is likely to continue finding support against the background of a reasonably solid economic development and a tight labor market. Certainly, until the next data highlight is due next week in the form of the July inflation data.