The strong recovery in USD/JPY looks to have run its course for now and we look for further near-term weakness in what we look to be a potentially lengthy ranging phase.

Key support stays seen at the recent low, the ‘neckline’ to the December/May base and 200-DMA at 137.51/136.62, which we continue to look to prove a solid floor.

Big picture, we would look for a consolidation phase to be followed by an eventual move back to 145.00/12. An eventual break above here can see the ‘measured base objective’ at 148.57.

A close below 136.62 though would suggest we have seen a more important peak, clearing the way for further weakness with support seen next at the 50% retracement of the 2023 rally at 136.15 and then more importantly at 133.04/133.50 – the 61.8% retracement, uptrend from January and May lows.