24-hour view: We did not expect the sharp drop that sent USD tumbling to a low of 141.54 (we were expecting it to trade in a range). Downward momentum is beginning to improve. Today, the risk is for USD to weaken further. However, any decline is unlikely to break 140.80 (next is at 140.00). Resistance is at 142.25, followed by 142.75. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Last Friday (04 Aug, spot at 142.70), we noted that upward momentum is beginning to deteriorate. We added, “the chance of USD rising to 145.00 is decreasing.” In NY trade, USD fell sharply and took out our ‘strong support’ level of 142.00 (low was 141.54). The breach of the ‘strong support’ level indicates that the recent buildup in upward pressure has faded. USD could trade in a broad range of 140.00/143.30 for now.