• WTI fell to a low below $80.00 and then jumped back above $82.00, clearing most of its daily losses.
• China reported weak Trade Balance data, with Exports and Imports coming in weaker than expected in July.
• A stronger USD also limits the WTI’s advance, but losses are limited by Saudi’s production cut prospects.

On Tuesday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw more than 1% losses, mainly driven by soft Trade Balance reported by China in July. A recovering USD also contributed to the decline, with the DXY comfortably sitting above 102.50. That being said, the hope for black gold’s prices is the prospects of further production cuts by the Saudis and a tighter global supply.

Investors assess China’s data

During the early Asian session on Tuesday, China reported weak Trade Balance data. Exports fell by 14.5% YoY in July, higher than the 12.5% expected, while Imports declined by 6.9%, also above the expectations of the 2.5% decrease expected. It's important to mention that China is the biggest Oil importer, so a weaker local economy lowers energy demand pushing the WTI downwards.

On the other hand, TD Securities analysts indicate that supply risks are rising to their highest level since early 2022, with the start of the war in Ukraine. In addition, they add, the voluntary production cuts by the Saudis and Russia’s export curtailment should contribute to a tighter global supply and push the price northwards.

WTI levels to watch

Observing the daily chart, it is apparent that WTI is currently experiencing a neutral to bearish trend as the bulls struggle to maintain their momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a weakening bullish trend with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out decreasing green bars. Plus, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMAs), suggesting that the bulls are firmly in control of the bigger picture.

Support levels:$80.00, $78.75 (20-day SMA), $78.00.  

Resistance levels: $82.50, $83.00, $84.00.

WTI Daily chart