Despite this impressive move driven by reduced Russian crude exports and Saudi production cuts, we expect that Brent will not break out of the yearly range of $72 to $88 just yet.

We witnessed heavy resistance this week at the $88/bbl mark again, and we see the current macro overhang and worsening Chinese economic data to keep this ceiling intact. However, if we are incorrect, we see that crude will continue to consolidate at a higher range with the next resistance levels at $93/bbl and $98/bbl. 

We reiterate our call that Brent will trade between $72/bbl and $88/bbl until Q4, when prices are likely to rise and average $90/bbl.