24-hour view:  Yesterday, we held the view that USD could rebound further. We were also of the view that “any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 145.40/146.80, and a clear break above 146.80 is unlikely.” However, USD did not quite rebound as it traded between 146.00 and 146.51. The underlying tone appears to be firm. Today, USD is likely to edge higher, but it is unlikely to break the major resistance at 147.20 (146.80 remains a relatively strong resistance level). On the downside, if USD breaches 146.00, it would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has subsided. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (30 Aug, spot at 146.00). At that time, we were of the view that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 144.50 and 147.20.” On Friday, USD dropped briefly to 144.43, and then rebounded strongly. The price actions reinforce our view, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 144.50 and 147.20.