• USD/MXN consolidates its recent losses to a one-and-half-week trough touched on Tuesday.
• The overnight breakdown and acceptance below the 100-day SMA favours bearish traders.
• Positive oscillators on the daily chart warrant caution before positioning for further losses.

The USD/MXN pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and consolidates its recent losses to a one-week low touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just above the 17.20 area, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the August monthly swing low and should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders.

The overnight sustained breakdown through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bears. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart –though have been easing from higher levels – are still holding in the positive territory. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels and warrants caution before positioning for any further depreciating move.

Some follow-through selling below the 17.20 level (50% Fibo.), however, has the potential to drag the USD/MXN pair to the 17.10 level, or the 61.8% Fibo. level. This is followed by the 17.00 round-figure mark, which if broken decisively will make spot prices vulnerable to weaken further towards the 16.90 area en route to the 16.70 region (August 28 low).

On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 17.35 region, is likely to cap the immediate upside, above which the USD/MXN pair could climb to the 17.45-17.50 hurdle, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. This is followed by the multi-month top, around the 17.70 zone, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for the resumption of the recent strong appreciating move witnessed over the past two weeks or so.

USD/MXN daily chart

Technical levels to watch