Higher gasoline prices and base effects are expected to push August CPI up to 3.6% YoY, and on a core and month-on-month basis, we also see an upside risk to the 0.2% MoM consensus estimate – clearly not enough to feed a bearish Dollar narrative.

We are bearish on the Dollar from the fourth quarter of this year, but this bearish narrative requires a few more weeks of patience. 

We favour DXY edging back to the top of its 104.50-105.00 range today.