The overall message by the Fed should be supportive of the Dollar: keep the door open for more tightening if needed and do anything to dent the idea that rate cuts are a long way out. However, market expectations appear quite condensed around this script. 

The 2024 dots are where there is a bit more room for uncertainty: leaving the 2024 dot unchanged may not be enough to trigger a material USD correction (perhaps leaving USD largely unchanged, if matched with Powell's verbal rate-cut pushback), but higher 2024 dots can translate into another USD leg higher. 

Beyond the short-term impact, we don’t expect this meeting to be a game changer for the Dollar, as the focus will remain on US activity data.