EUR/USD moved lower around a half figure on the hawkish hold from the Fed. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.
The outcome was about as hawkish as the Fed could have engineered without actually delivering a surprise hike.
Despite the ongoing USD strength, we think there could be some potential for some EUR/USD tailwinds in the near-term.
We think that peak policy rates, improving manufacturing sector relative to the service sector and/or easing pessimism priced on China could add some support to EUR/USD within the next month. On the longer horizon, however, we maintain our strategic case for a lower EUR/USD, expecting the cross at 1.03 in 12M.