24-hour view: Yesterday, we held the view that USD “could edge higher, but it is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 149.00.” USD then eked out a fresh high of 148.45 before plummeting to end the day lower by 0.51% (147.58). While the sharp drop appears to be overdone, there is room for USD to test 147.15 before stabilisation is likely. The major support at 146.50 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 147.90, followed by 148.20. 

Next 1-3 weeks: On Monday (18 Sep, spot at 147.80), we highlighted that “upward momentum has increased slightly, and USD could edge higher to 148.40, but the likelihood of a sustained rise above this level is not high.” Yesterday (21 Sep, spot at 148.30), we highlighted that USD “Upward momentum has increased further, and USD has room to rise to 149.00.” USD then rose and eked out a fresh high of 148.45 before plummeting below our ‘strong support’ level of 147.45 (low has been 147.31). The breach of our ‘strong support’ level indicates that upward pressure has faded. For the time being, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 146.50 and 148.50.