Growth looks set to slow sharply in Q4.

Even without a government shutdown, the restart of student loan repayments and slowing job growth are likely to weigh on consumption.

The labour market has cooled significantly. This is helping to dampen wage growth, making it likely that disinflation will resume once the near-term inflation bounce is behind us.

We continue to expect rate cuts next year, but policy will stay in restrictive territory until 2025.