24-hour view: We noted yesterday “there does not appear to be any clear directional bias,” and we expected EUR to trade in a range between 1.0500 and 1.0600. Our view was not wrong, even though EUR traded in a narrower range than expected (1.0518/1.0574). Upward momentum is showing early signs of building. Today, EUR is likely to trade with an upward bias. In view of the mild upward pressure, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.0630 (there is another resistance at 1.0600). In order to maintain the momentum buildup, EUR must stay above 1.0530 (minor support is at 1.0550).

Next 1-3 weeks: Our view from last Friday (06 Oct, spot at 1.0545) still stands. As highlighted, the current price action in EUR is likely part of a rebound that could extend to 1.0630 but is unlikely to break clearly above this level. The mild upward pressure is intact as long as EUR stays above 1.0500 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.0460).