The Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector, the most reliable economic barometer for the Euro area, fell again in October by 0.9 points to 47.8. It has thus been clearly in recession territory for three months. The index for the manufacturing sector, at 43.0, also gives no hope of a turnaround.

The ECB is likely to revise its economic outlook further downwards. In its September projections, it still assumed that the Euro area economy would avoid a recession. A further increase in the key interest rate is thus becoming increasingly unlikely.