The ECB announces policy today, and we expect both a hold and an attempt to divert the focus away from rate-based guidance to non-rate monetary policy discussions.

There is some room for a hawkish surprise, but we would have some doubts – given the rate and growth differentials – that markets will have the appetite to chase EUR/USD rallies beyond 1.060/1.0630 for much longer after the ECB announcement. 

All in all, we don’t think this will be a game-changing event for EUR/USD.