Singapore’s retail sales growth moderated to 0.6% y/y, weaker than Bloomberg’s consensus of 1.6% y/y and materially below Aug’s revised reading of 4.2% y/y. On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, retail sales contracted 1.6% m/m in Sep, reversing the two prior months of expansion (Aug: 1.9%, Jul: 0.8%). Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales contracted by a smaller -0.8% m/m in Sep (Aug: 2.1%), translating to a y/y print of 0.5% in Sep (Aug: 4.0%). In nominal terms, the value of retail sales fell to SGD3.88bn (from SGD4.01bn in Aug).    

Ongoing recovery in the tourism sector remains a key factor supporting retail sales growth in Sep and into 2024. 

Outlook – We continue to expect retailers to enjoy some level of domestic and external support, complemented by major events such as various sports, popular concerts and BTMICE (Business Travel and Meetings, Incentive Travel, Conventions and Exhibitions) activities... Moderating wage growth alongside incremental uncertainty in the job market may exert some downward pressure on retail sales going forward, in particular on big-ticket items like furniture, household equipment, watches and jewellery.