The Zloty has been rather stable for the last few weeks. Economists at ING analyze EUR/PLN outlook ahead of the National Bank of Poland meeting.
We expect a 25 bps rate cut today, which is in line with market and survey expectations, but we see a risk that rates could remain unchanged.
We remain positive on PLN and believe today's meeting should be a trigger for rates to reassess the dovish view. This should push EUR/PLN lower and testing 4.420 should not be a difficult task.
However, the key will be the governor's communication on Thursday.