We expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to recover moderately in 2024 (year-end forecast 2024: 1.09). This is likely to be driven primarily by the US Dollar, which is likely to suffer from the expected US interest rate cuts, just as it had previously benefited from the interest rate hikes. 

EUR/USD should also receive some support from the fact that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates less than the markets expect.