24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that USD “could edge higher to 151.15 before the risk of a more sustained pullback increases.” We also highlighted that “151.30 is unlikely to come into view.” The anticipated USD strength exceeded our expectations as it rose to a high of 151.38. Further USD strength is not ruled out, but upward momentum is not exactly strong, and it remains to be seen if USD can break above last week’s high near 151.80. Support is at 151.10; a breach of 150.90 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (09 Nov, spot at 150.80), we indicated “upward momentum has increased just a tad.” We added, USD “has to break clearly above 151.30 before a sustained advance is likely.” USD then rose to a high of 151.38. While we prefer a more ‘impulsive’ break off 151.30, the price action suggests that the risk of USD breaking above last week’s high near 151.80 has increased. Note that this level is not far below last year’s peak near 151.95. If USD can break above this solid resistance zone, it is likely to rise further to 152.50. In order to keep the momentum going, USD must stay above 150.40 in the next few days.