We forecast that all of the BoE’s key inflation metrics will be heading in the right direction through 2024, allowing the BoE to deliver 100 bps of easing next year starting in August. This probably means that GBP/USD will struggle to sustain any gains over 1.30.

EUR/GBP realised volatility is not too far off the lows seen over the last two decades. This means that the broad EUR/USD trend will largely define that of GBP/USD – unless we get some enormous independent move in Sterling. That probably means GBP/USD trading in the 1.20-1.25 range for the next three to six months (with perhaps some downside risks), before better Eurozone growth in the second half of 2024 and lower US rates allow EUR/USD and GBP/USD to make their moves higher.