The pending reversal of hawkish monetary policy should help catalyze more supportive flows in early 2024, after it becomes clear that the Fed and other central banks will pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance. We judge the actual policy tilt toward a more dovish stance will start in June 2024, but markets should react positively many months before this happens.

Once an economic recovery is on the horizon, the white metal should get an additional boost from the industrial side, which could see the white metal target $26 mid-2024. At that time, lower interest rates, firmer physical investment, ETP purchases and industrial demand will work together to tighten market conditions.

Given the lack of mining capacity, its more intensive use in electric vehicles, and growing demand from solar panels as the world transitions into a net zero economy, there will be a structural component working along with lower rates and cyclical demand increases next year.