The big issue is whether the SNB’s hawkish stance will remain unchanged. What is its view on the upside risks due to second-round effects? Or might it see downside risks for inflation too?

In this context, the important question is: what role does the CHF exchange rate play? Will the SNB continue to favour a strong franc to counteract upside risks for inflation? Or is it beginning to get concerned that CHF appreciation might begin to dampen inflation excessively? The times when the SNB intervened against a strong franc for fear of deflation have not been over for long.

Whereas we consider a change in interest rates to be unlikely the meeting today does not have to be a non-event. On the contrary! The SNB might adjust its communication (or not, as may be the case) and thus cause some movement in EUR/CHF.