For today, the highlight will be the release of the European Central Bank minutes and President Christine Lagarde speaking on a panel. Her message on Wednesday was a little mixed. Like other ECB members, she presented a view that aggressive market pricing of the ECB easing cycle was self-defeating. But then she said the ECB would cut rates in the summer. We doubt the ECB minutes will shed too much light on this dilemma.

EUR/USD may well trade in a tight 1.0880-1.0950 range today, but we see no reason to change our current forecast of 1.0800 for the end of 1Q.