We expect some 100 bps of BoE cuts this year. Since we also deem ECB rate cut bets as too aggressive, we are bullish on EUR/GBP into year-end. However, we think that the back up in EUR rates will be gradual and markets will be reluctant to let go of high-yielding GBP longs so close to the surprise December CPI print.

Accordingly, EUR/GBP may struggle to find sustainable support above 0.8600 for now. The 0.8640 is where 50, 100 and 200-Day Moving Averages converge, and could be the next big resistance.