The strong US jobs data swung EUR/USD back under 1.0800 on Friday. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
It is tempting to say the direction of travel lies to the 1.0700 area, and if so, it will probably be a function of the US side of the equation. From the Eurozone side, the calendar is relatively light.
Given the market still prices a 55% chance of an ECB rate cut in April, there is always a risk of a EUR-positive back-up in short-term rates if that cut is removed. It is not clear this will be the week in which the April rate cut is removed.