Following last week's surprise cut from the Swiss National Bank, there has been increased scrutiny on ECB communication. This remains mixed, with one hawk on Friday still talking up the chances of an April rate cut. Notably, money markets still ascribe a very low probability to such an outcome and we doubt that changes much this week given the absence of key data.

EUR/USD remains fragile, but at least the steadier story for the Renminbi will discourage aggressive sales of EUR/USD through 1.0800.