Analysts at Rabobank assess the details of the CFTC's latest Commitment of Traders Report.

US CPI data bolstered USD significantly in spot market

"USD net short positions decreased, due to an increase in long positions. This week we saw a stellar NFP print of 303K new jobs added to the US economy against expectations of only 214K. Last week’s stronger than expected US CPI inflation data bolstered the USD significantly in the spot market, suggesting another increase in USD longs is likely in the next set of speculators’ data."

"EUR net long positions increased, driven by a decrease in short positions. That said, Eurozone aggregate CPI inflation printed this week at a slightly softer than expected m/m reading of 0.8%, paired with contractionary retail sales. Positioning in response to the ECB’s decision to hold rates flat and Lagarde’s rhetoric in the accompanying press conference will be reflected in next week’s report, but the EUR has been under pressure in the spot market."

"GBP net long positions have decreased, driven by a fall in long positions. Minimal data printed from the UK this week. Investors are pricing in a 30% likelihood of a June cut into the GB OIS curve as the UK battles stubborn inflation."