China's third plenum on the radar in the coming weeks, and markets are keenly focused on the potential for fresh stimulus in the country, TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay notes.

China's third plenum coming, Copper trending weak

“With China's third plenum on the radar in the coming weeks, markets are keenly focused on the potential for fresh stimulus in the Middle Kingdom that could drive commodity demand. Any announcements regarding investment in the grid and clean energy, along with additional support to the property market, are key areas of focus for the market.”

“While investor appetite for Copper in the Middle Kingdom has been muted, top Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) traders have covered their recent shorts heading into the plenum. Furthermore, while the nearest CTA trigger remains to the downside, there is a more of a margin of safety with the trigger sitting at $9,472/t.”

“However, with our gauge of global commodity demand continuing to weaken, while depressed premiums and surging inventories in the Middle Kingdom argue against fundamental tightness, there are plenty of potential catalysts that could still see prices ease once again.”