China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in more than a year. Analysts at UOB Group revise their GDP growth forecast for China to 4.9% for 2024 from 5.1% previously.

China’s economy growth slows down

“China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in more than a year. The 2Q24 GDP growth came in below expectation at 4.7% y/y, 0.7% q/q sa, while 1H24 growth averaged 5.0%.”

“Nominal GDP is estimated to have expanded by 4.0% y/y in 2Q24 compared to 4.2% y/y in 1Q24. Despite coming below the real GDP growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, the gap between the nominal and real growth rate has narrowed. However, weak demand will continue to keep price pressures muted.”

“The moderation in Jun’s activity indicators, particularly the retail sales continue to indicate an uneven recovery. As such, it will be challenging to maintain the growth momentum in the second half of the year. We revise down our GDP growth forecast for China to 4.9% for 2024 from 5.1% previously, with risks that growth could be slightly lower than the official target of ‘around 5%’.”