Hopes of a ceasefire in the Gaza war were seriously dampened at the weekend by a devastating rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, allegedly carried out by the Shiite Hezbollah militia, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Middle East and Venezuela don’t impress the market

“According to insiders, Israel is keen to ensure that the expected military response to the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon does not lead to an all-out war in the entire region. Apparently, market participants on the oil market do not consider such a risk to be very likely, as the subdued price reaction yesterday showed.”

“The controversial outcome of the presidential elections in Venezuela has not yet led to any significant price reaction on the oil market either. The US government had announced to calibrate its sanctions policy depending on Maduro's reaction to the election results.”

“Now, increasing international pressure and continued sanctions could lead to a renewed decline in production. It is therefore astonishing that the market is completely ignoring developments in the Middle East and Venezuela.”