The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to reduce the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 5.25%, embarking on an easing cycle much sooner than expected, almost a year ahead of the RBNZ’s own projections, UOB Group

RBNZ to continue steadily cutting the OCR

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 5.25% earlier today (14 Aug). The move came as a surprise as it embarked on an easing cycle much sooner than expected.”

“The RBNZ’s updated forecasts show the average OCR at 4.62% early next year and at 3.85% by the end of 2025. Growth forecasts have been revised down significantly, incorporating negative growth in both 2Q24 and 3Q24. The RBNZ now sees inflation dropping to 2.3% in the current quarter but will not return to the 2% midpoint until mid-2026.”

“Given how a faster-than-expected contraction in the economy has shifted the balance of risks, we now expect the RBNZ to continue steadily cutting the OCR by 25 bps in every meeting for the rest of this year to bring the OCR to 4.75% by year end.”