Through most of this year, EUR/USD has been contained by a 1.10 to 1.06 range, Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes.

EUR/USD set to trade at 1.12 on a 3-month scale

“This month’s break higher and the advent of a new policy cycle for the Fed suggests that a new range is in the process of being drawn out. The forthcoming releases of US August labour data and the next round of US CPI inflation numbers suggest scope for volatility in the US Dollar (USD) crosses near-term as the market finetunes its expectations for the size of the Fed policy decision in September.”

“We see scope for pullbacks potentially to EUR/USD1.10 if key US data in early September prints on the firm side of market forecasts. That said, on the back of Rabo’s revised view that four consecutive Fed rate cuts may be on the cards, we have revised up our 3- and 6-month EUR/USD forecasts to 1.12 and 1.11 respectively from 1.09.” 

We have left our 9- and 12-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.10 on the assumption that US inflation fears could be given another boost next year as a consequence of the US election outcome.