China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) picked up further to 0.6% y/y in Aug but was short of market’s expectation (Bloomberg est: 0.7%; Jul: 0.5%). The rebound in food inflation was the driver, which more than offset lower non-food inflation, UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

Headline CPI picks up less than expected

”China’s CPI picked up in Aug, driven by a sharp rebound in food prices which turned positive for the first time since Jul 2023. Amid persistent weak demand, core inflation and services inflation eased further while PPI deflation widened sharply in Aug.”

“Factoring in the higher food inflation, we adjust higher our headline CPI forecast to 0.5% from 0.3% for 2024 (2023: 0.2%). However, we revised our full-year forecast for the PPI to -2.0% from -1.3% for 2024 as underlying demand has stayed weak.”

“Weaker domestic price pressure and the monetary policy easing in the developed economies have combined to support further easing by the PBOC. The near-term focus will be on a further cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), targeting the release of long-term liquidity to boost credit expansion which had slowed sharply this year due to weak investment and mortgage demand.”