The Bank of Japan will conclude the central bank week with its meeting on Friday morning, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

JPY has a good chance of falling below 140

“Recently, their decisions have been rather erratic. In June, it was expected to be hawkish, but then disappointed. In July, nothing was expected, and they surprised with a rate hike. For Friday, the market and economists agree: no one expects another move from the BoJ, even though various BoJ council members have recently been relentlessly emphasizing that they want to keep raising rates.”

“The market turmoil in early August following the last rate hike is still too fresh in people's minds. Therefore, I expect the BoJ to stay on the sidelines this week, in part because the Fed will be doing most of the work on USD/JPY, and the JPY has a good chance of falling below 140 per USD this week. Even without a rate hike from the BoJ.”