Increasing momentum suggests the US Dollar (USD) is likely to rise further, potentially reaching 7.1600. In the longer run, upward momentum is building, but USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD has to break above 7.1600 to stay afloat

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we expected USD to trade in a range between 7.1120 and 7.1380. USD subsequently traded in a 7.1232/7.1375 range, closing at 7.1346 (+0.15%). In early Asian trade today, USD rose sharply. The increasing momentum suggest USD is likely to rise further, potentially reaching 7.1600. To maintain the buildup in momentum, USD must remain above 7.1300 with minor support at 7.1375.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We shifted to a neutral stance last Friday (25 Oct, spot at 7.1250), indicating that ‘upward momentum has largely faded, and USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.0800 and 7.1500.’ USD then closed at 7.1346 but it rose sharply in Asian trade today. While upward momentum is building, USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1600 will remain intact, provided that 7.1200 is not breached in the next few days.”