Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for oil deliveries to Asia in December, indicating weaker oil demand, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Iranian oil becomes more expensive

“Accordingly, Asian buyers will have to pay a premium of only $1.7 per barrel for Arab Light compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark. This is 50 US cents less than this month. Surveyed refiners had expected a premium in this range. Saudi Arabia competes in Asia with lower-priced suppliers such as Iran and Russia.”

“This could change if US President-elect Trump were to enforce the existing oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again. Iran currently covers about 13% of China's crude oil import needs. According to trade sources, the discounts for Iranian oil delivered to China compared to Brent recently fell to their lowest level in five years because Iran was exporting less oil in October due to concerns about a retaliatory attack by Israel.”

“This could be a taste of what could come if US sanctions tighten. The beneficiary of this would be Saudi Arabia, which could then offer its oil again at higher premiums.”