European Central Bank (ECB) data showed that negotiated wage growth picked up to 5.4% in Q3, from 3.5% in Q2, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  

EUR overlooks sharp pick up in negotiated wages in Q3

“Elevated wage demand was a concern for ECB hawks earlier this year and the renewed pick up in pay will make for uncomfortable reading for hawks. Policymakers are still likely to press ahead with cautious easing steps, however, believing that looser labour market conditions ahead will curb wage demand and reduce secondround price risks in 2025.”

“Swaps pricing for the December ECB policy decision is unchanged, with 29bps of easing priced in. The EUR is softer but spot is still, just about, holding within its recent consolidation range—a potential bear flag.”

EUR/USD weakness should resume more obviously on a break under short-term support (flag base) at 1.0540. Resistance is 1.0600/10.