ICE Brent has been trading flat after a sharp fall on Monday as the market assesses the Middle East's new dynamics. Israel and Hezbollah have announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement, effective immediately. This time window could be used to discuss a longer-lasting peace agreement. The focus now shifts to the implementation of the current agreement and how it affects ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip or the Israel-Iran conflict, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.         

Crude oil prices continue to face stiff resistance around $75

“Weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that crude oil inventory in the US dropped by 5.9m barrels over the last week compared to market expectations of a marginal draw. For refined products, distillate and gasoline stocks increased by 2.5m barrels and 1.8m barrels respectively. The more widely followed EIA report will be released today.”

“OPEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend and expectations are that the group could further delay its plans to increase production by 180k bbls/d in January. In the last meeting, the group had postponed its supply increment plans from December to January.”

“Crude oil prices continue to face stiff resistance around US$75/bbl due to demand concerns. Any premature production hike from the group could push the market into deeper oversupply.”