The Euro (EUR) is softer, slipping back to the low 1.05s after failing to hold gains through the low 1.06s late last week, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR drifts lower

“A 1/4-point cut is fully priced in for Thursday’s ECB policy decision and while the EUR may drift a little further ahead of the meeting, spot is trading close to fair value (1.0549) this morning, suggesting that there may be little scope for significant losses in the short run unless the ECB springs a dovish surprise and eases policy more aggressively than markets are positioned for.”

“The EUR’s failed attempt to push through technical resistance around 1.06 suggests a period of softer trading ahead. Spot losses through 1.0540 imply some scope for additional weakness in the short run at least. EUR support is 1.0470/75. Resistance is 1.0540/50.”