The latest macro indicators have all but reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep rates on hold on Thursday. In this context, the EUR/GBP pair is set to stay capped below 0.8300 in the coming weeks, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/GBP to stay capped below 0.8300 in near term

“The focus will be on any tweaks to forward-looking language and the vote split (which we expect at 8-1 hold-cut). There is no press conference scheduled for this meeting. Our perception is that the BoE will try to make this announcement a non-event, offering cautious signals for further easing down the road but still highlighting stickiness in services inflation and wages.”

“We don’t see the pound being hugely impacted today, and the near-term outlook remains positive for the currency – at least until a fresh round of UK data potentially throws the latest hawkish repricing into question.”

“We see EUR/GBP staying capped below 0.8300 in the coming weeks.”