The oil market had a strong end to 2024 and a strong start to 2025 with ICE Brent trading above $76/bbl in early January, ING’s commodity analysts note.

Middle East physical market gets stronger

“In early December, OPEC+ agreed to a further extension to its supply cuts, leaving the market with a smaller-than-expected surplus for 2025.”

“In addition, broader sanctions against Iran and Russia have seen Asian buyers looking for other Middle Eastern oil grades, leading to a stronger Middle East physical market. There is also uncertainty over the Iranian oil supply once Trump enters office later this month.”