(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,0921 -0,71%
GBP/USD $1,2938 -0,33%
USD/CHF Chf0,9988 +1,15%
USD/JPY Y113,26 +0,50%
EUR/JPY Y123,70 -0,20%
GBP/JPY Y146,54 +0,18%
AUD/USD $0,7383 -0,43%
NZD/USD $0,6907 -0,19%
USD/CAD C$1,3695 +0,34%
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY March 0.4%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M March -0.1% 0.3%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) April 3.4%
06:00 Germany Current Account March 20.4
06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March 2.2% -0.6%
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln March 19.9
09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) March -2.5%
13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories March 0.4% -0.1%
14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings March 5.743
17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
20:15 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak
Election of Macron in France more positive for integration of Europe
French presidential election alleviates some concerns
Weak recent gdp, inflation data likely transitory
EURUSD: 1.0850 (EUR 312m) 1.0875 (770m) 1.0900 (695m) 1.1000 (379m) 1.1050 (298m) 1.1150 (580m)
USDJPY: 111.25-30 (541m) 111.50 (267m) 112.00 (546m) 112.50 (204m) 113.00 (187m)
GBPUSD: 1.2850 (GBP 448m) 1.2900 (181m) 1.3010 (192m)
EURGBP: 0.8475 (EUR 170m)
USDCHF: 0.9940-50 (USD 290m) 1.0000 (180m)
USDCAD: 1.3500 (363m) 1.3550 (550m) 1.3600 (280m)
AUDUSD: 0.7340 (AUD 248m) 0.7400 (410m) 0.7540 (313m) 0.7600 (332m)
Housing starts are trending higher at 213,768 units in April 2017, compared to 210,702 units in March 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
"New housing construction increased in Canada, with seasonally adjusted data exceeding 200,000 units for five months in a row", said Bob Dugan, CMHC's Chief Economist. "The increase in the trend was mainly due to apartment construction in British Columbia and Québec, which was partly offset by a decline in Ontario's multiple starts."
EUR/USD
Offers: 1.0985 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100 1.1130 1.1150
Bids: 1.0950-55 1.0920 1.0900 1.0870 1.0850 1.0820 1 .0800 1.0780 1.0750 1.0700
GBP/USD
Offers: 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050 1.3080 1.3100
Bids: 1.2950 1.2920 1.2900 1.2880 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800
EUR/JPY
Offers: 123.75 124.00 124.30 124.50 124.80 125.00
Bids: 123.20 123.00 122.80 122.50 122.35 122.20 122.00
EUR/GBP
Offers: 0.8450 0.8465 0.8480-85 0.8500 0.8530 0.8550
Bids: 0.8530-35 0.8400 0.8385 0.8350 0.8300
USD/JPY
Offers: 112.85 113.00-05 113.20 113.50 113.80 114.00
Bids: 112.45-50 112.20 112.00 111.80 111.50 111.30 111.00
AUD/USD
Offers: 0.7425 0.7550-55 0.7480 0.7500
Bids: 0.7400 0.7385 0.7365 0.7350 0.7335 0.7300
French election reduces political risk; challenges ahead
French election result supports Fitch's assumption that France will remain a member of EU and Eurozone
No immediate rating impact on four Italian OBG from bank downgrades
The sentix economic index for the Euro area rises to 27.4 points, the highest since July 2007. These assessments are increasingly supported by the current situation assessment, which reached the highest level since January 2008, with 34.5 points. It is even better in Germany. Here, the current situation judgment reaches 61.3 points the fifth largest ever measured value. Quite different is the situation in the US, where investors are increasingly looking at the economic outlook. US economic expectations are falling again.
The Euroland economy is still very well estimated by investors. The overall Euroland index climbs to 27.4 points, the highest since July 2007.
This assessment is increasingly based on the assessment of the situation, which has risen to 34.5 points for the fifth time in a row.
The development in Europe thus decouples strongly from the US economic assessment, which is again declining. With 5.8 points the expectations are only just above the stagnation threshold! There are also signs of fatigue in Asia ex Japan.
Says Macron will be tough in Brexit negotiations
No one has interest in hard Brexit
EURUSD: 1.0850 (EUR 312m) 1.0875 (770m) 1.0900 (695m) 1.1000 (379m) 1.1050 (298m) 1.1150 (580m)
USDJPY: 111.25-30 (541m) 111.50 (267m) 112.00 (546m) 112.50 (204m) 113.00 (187m)
GBPUSD: 1.2850 (GBP 448m) 1.2900 (181m) 1.3010 (192m)
EURGBP: 0.8475 (EUR 170m)
USDCHF: 0.9940-50 (USD 290m) 1.0000 (180m)
USDCAD: 1.3500 (363m) 1.3550 (550m) 1.3600 (280m)
AUDUSD: 0.7340 (AUD 248m) 0.7400 (410m) 0.7540 (313m) 0.7600 (332m)
House prices in the three months to April were 3.8% higher than in the same period a year ago; the same as in March.
Prices in the three months to April were 0.2% lower than in the preceding quarter.
Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: "House prices have stagnated over the past three months. Overall, prices in the three months to April were marginally lower than in the preceding three months; the first quarterly decline since November 2012. The annual rate of growth remained at 3.8% in April, the lowest rate since May 2013. "Housing demand appears to have been curbed in recent months due to the deterioration in housing affordability caused by a sustained period of rapid house price growth during 2014-16. Signs of a decline in the pace of job creation, and the beginnings of a squeeze on households' finances as a result of increasing inflation, may also be constraining the demand for homes.
The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.8% in March after falling for nine months.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 13.4% in March after rising for two months.
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in March and has fallen for 12 months.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 4.3% in March following a rise of 5.0% in the previous month.
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in March 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 1.0% on February 2017. For February 2017, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 3.5% compared with January 2017 (primary +3.4%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had increased in March 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.6% on February 2017.
In March 2017, domestic orders decreased by 3.8% while foreign orders increased by 4.8% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 6.8% on the previous month, new orders from other countries increased 3.5% compared to February 2017.
In March 2017 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 3.7% compared with February 2017. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 3.7% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 5.5% was recorded.
There were 11 candidates in this year's French election. Three were EU-skeptic and the rest eight were pro-EU. So, how much pro-EU is Emmanuel Macron?
He is the candidate, who favors the European Union and wants further integration within the bloc to make the cementing stronger.
One of the biggest drawbacks of the European Union is that it is not a political union and Macron is one of the few who would like to remove that obstacle probably by giving up parts of the French sovereignty if others join in too.
He is an EU-optimist. While many remain skeptical towards the European Union in the current scenario, he believes that good days of the EU are ahead and he believes that the union could become even stronger under the right leadership.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1117 (8361)
$1.1077 (3622)
$1.1051 (3641)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0969
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0894 (1648)
$1.0834 (3082)
$1.0760 (4411)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 80933 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (8361);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 85520 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0200 (5696);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 5
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3303 (998)
$1.3204 (1836)
$1.3107 (2277)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2959
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2892 (1165)
$1.2795 (1774)
$1.2697 (1445)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 30816 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3412);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 33050 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3083);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.13 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 5
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.