This Can Trigger A Sharp EUR Rally Next Year; How To Position? - SocGen

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26 septiembre 2016

This Can Trigger A Sharp EUR Rally Next Year; How To Position? - SocGen

"The chart below shows net annual long-term (direct and portfolio investment) capital outflows from Japan, in US dollars. The switch from net importer of capital to exporter in 2014 helped weaken the Yen and the Euro. It still provides a lot of fuel for risk assets everywhere.

But if massive capital outflows merely keep EUR/USD in a stifling range, isn't the risk at some point in the next year, that any hiccup in those flows triggers a sharp Euro rally?

A Euro surge would catch just as many people off guard as the yen move did. The best way to position for this is to be long EUR/GBP".

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