- Top 10 trades for 2017 according to Morgan Stanley
Noticias del mercado
29 noviembre 2016
Top 10 trades for 2017 according to Morgan Stanley
"USD has entered its last leg within a secular bull market. We expect USD to be driven by widening rate and investment return differentials.
USD strength should be front-loaded against low-yielding currencies, particularly JPY and KRW.
Later in the cycle we see USD strength broadening out with the help of rising US real rates, specifically hitting high-yielding currencies. Higher real rates should eventually tighten financial conditions, increasing the headwinds for the US economy and marking the turning point for USD after 1Q18.
1) Long USD/JPY: Yield differentials driving outflows from Japan and higher inflation expectations.
2) Long USD/KRW: Diverging growth and monetary policy to increase outflows from Korea.
3) Short EUR/GBP: No new negative UK news allows the undervalued GBP to recover.
4) Long USD/NOK: Norway government's slower fiscal support to make long NOK positions adjust.
5) Short AUD/CAD: Reflects the diverging US-China economic growth stories.
6) Short SGD/INR: Relative external sector dependence, China exposure and debt overhangs.
7) Long USD/CNH: RMB weakens from capital outflows and diverging monetary policy from the US.
8) Long BRL/COP: We expect reform momentum and high yields to cushion external risks.
9) Long RUB/ZAR: Continued tight monetary policy should help RUB outperform.
10) Long CHF/JPY: Yield differentials weaken JPY, while CHF is a good eurozone political risk hedge".
Copyright © 2016 Morgan Stanley, eFXnews
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