"In line with an overwhelming consensus, we do not expect any changes to the ECB's monetary policy programme at tomorrow's meeting. Instead, we expect the focus to be on the Governing Council's assessment of macro-economic developments in light of some positive dataflow over the past few weeks. Thanks in part to that dataflow, we now believe the risks to the ECB's (and consensus) forecasts for the growth and inflation outlook have shifted to the upside. During the post-meeting press conference, President Draghi will nevertheless probably re-emphasise the ECB's strong commitment to the existing monetary policy programme by stressing some of the numerous downside risks that could generate further instability for the region in the months ahead. In terms of trades: we enter 10yr OLO vs short 10yr RFGB at 20bp targeting 10bp (stop 25bp), but also a tactical long 15yr BTP Mar-32 vs 10yr and 20yr at 10.5bp with a target at 0bp stop at 15b".