Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, expects the RBNZ to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.50% at tomorrow's meeting with the Bank shifting to an easing bias, paving the way for a cut at the August meeting.

“Although GDP and CPI are close to the Bank's targets, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Bank delivering a surprise cut at this meeting to show it is ahead of the curve. OIS is placing less than a 20% chance to this outcome. If the RBNZ cuts, the NZD should should drop 1% or more. From current levels this implies a 0.6550 target. If there is no easing bias, then the NZD should rise 0.5%. From current levels this implies 0.6670.”