Analysts at TD Securities are forecasting a new monthly drop in the U.S. manufacturing ISM index to 51.0, as they expect ongoing trade headwinds to have affected business sentiment in the June survey.

• “The average of the ISM-adjusted regional surveys signaled a 2pt decline from the May levels to 51.9, with retreats in five out of the six published surveys we track. We note, however, that most of these surveys were negatively biased by the US-Mexico trade spat given some responses had to be returned early in the month. That said, a recent spate of uninspiring growth in core durable goods orders and a weak Markit PMI survey also boost the odds for a downside surprise in June, in our view.”