TD Securities' analysts note the next RBA August cash rate decision is to be released tomorrow and they expect the Australian central bank to keep the cash rate on hold at 1%, following cuts at the two prior meetings.

• “The Bank is unlikely to deviate from its script, waiting to assess the impact of the tax cuts and two cash rate cuts.
• We expect another stonking trade surplus in June thanks to not only a 13% rise in iron ore prices but a 6% increase in iron ore volumes. As for imports, the 10% drop in oil prices in Jun should make a meaningful dent on the import bill.
• We forecast exports +5% m/m but for imports to drop 3%. This should drive the trade surplus to a record of A$8.25b and make it increasingly likely to achieve a surplus on the capital account, the first time in 50yrs.”