James Smith, a developed market economist at ING, notes that a 'no deal' Brexit has undoubtedly become more likely in recent days - the EU is unlikely to offer anything big, and Parliament faces an uphill battle to stop a prime minister set on exiting without a deal.

• "When British MPs return from their summer holidays at the beginning of next month, there will be less than two months until Brexit on 31 October. Markets are becoming increasingly worried that this won’t be enough time for Parliament to block a ‘no deal’ exit – the pound has fallen by 3% against the euro since Mr Johnson became leader.
• So just how likely is a scenario whereby the UK leaves the EU without a deal? We think the probability has risen in recent days - we'd now put it at 25%, maybe higher - but ultimately it all boils down to how you answer four key questions."