The S&P 500 recovery has extended towards the top of its downtrend channel from April at 3946/50. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for a fresh downturn from here.

Break above 3950 to improve the short-term technical outlook

“The spotlight now turns to the top of the trend channel from April and recent reaction high at 3946/50. Our bias remains for a fresh cap to be seen here and for fresh weakness to emerge over the next 2-4 weeks.” 

“Support is seen at 3859 initially, with a break below gap support at 3838 needed to ease the immediate upside bias for weakness back to the short-term uptrend at 3785. Beneath 3742/39 though stays seen needed to open up a retest of the 3637 YTD low.”

“A break above 3950 would improve the short-term technical outlook with the next resistance seen at 3974 ahead of the top of the price gap from early in June at 4017/19. With the 63-day average seen not far above at 4059, we would look for a fresh cap here.”